Monday, 24 May 2010

結論是…

籌備經年,又研究了十年,關於手機與腦癌關係的研究,最近發表報告,結論是,有趣就是沒有結論 “The data are not strong enough for a causal interpretation…” (source: NY Times)

太喜歡這個「沒.有.結.論」的“結論”

是有是無?是真是假?又如何?

莫非如果報告說「是的,用手機會增加患腦癌的風險」,會用的人會因此而用少些麼?反過來也一樣,低用量的人又會否用多一點?

人生有太多事就如用手機,在這個年代,如果你仍能“堅持連最基本只用來打電話的手機也不需要,那很好,請堅持下去,因為其實也許這是最寧靜的生活!

要不然,倒不如順着大勢而行,硬要花那麼多心思丶時間丶資源等等去尋找一個根本不知道存不存在丶而知了又也許更不快樂的所謂結論,倒不如把心思花在能令自己活得好過一點的,什麼也好!Otherwise,只怕不講手機也會患腦癌!?又或是縱使不患腦癌,也

看下去,比那結論更有趣的是

下一步是開展另一個類似的研究,而 time frame 是三十年!有趣耶!原來故事永不會完,管他三十年後到底會否有結論!?



不知到時候我還存不存在?又有沒有心思和時間用我的小想法去“研究”它的“結論”!?

P.S. 這裡寫的完全撇除了政治與商業因數,據說以上提及的研究,四份一經費來自手機製造商,full of conflict of interests … 情形如當年研究吸煙與肺癌關係差不多。但在我而言,吸煙與用手機又不太一樣 (另一個“大道理”的題材!?)

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi, This is the best article u have ever written in your blog. :-)

The inclusive statement in the report is a very interesting result indeed. If they give a conclusive
result, it will be politically incorrect (a possibility).
Also, they probably don't want to stop whatever
research they are doing. So, making it an inclusive
research finding would definitely keep them into
the eco system so they will not lose their jobs over
night. People tend NOT to believe in a definitive
or conclusive result in general. They will cast doubts on it no matter what. For example, they will attack how the experiments was carried out. How scientific it is to derive their findings? all sort of questions. If they publish an inclusive result, they will be able to stay away from a lot of unnecessarily criticism.

Overall, their results suggest to carry on with the studies. Nothing is 100% right or 100% wrong. The only right thing is to say something in the middle, ;-), to minimize the chance that they are absolutely wrong.

SKII said...

Thanks for supplementing the political and commercial bits. Yes, different forces have their own vested interests, making the whole thing really complicated.

This is the best and most comprehensive comment I have ever got.

btw, if this is the best so far, I take it as the others are at least 'good' rather than 'not bad' or 'bad'!! ^_^

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